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Monthly Archives: January 2016

Sustain Weekly Newsletter-1Feb2016

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SUSTAIN WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

A weekly sustainable tech newsletter from a standing desk. – Feb 1, 2016

Sustain Weekly — Strange Case of Dr. Patch and Mr. Phone

“Elegance is Elimination” — Cristobal Balenciaga on Fashion.

Last week, I wrote mostly on consumerism and coffee drones. I even made a poor sketch of a drone delivering coffee. Then, during the week, I read this article on a self-reliant glove that can help people regulate their trembling and degenerative disorders. That’s a great innovation. Smart clothes, watches and anything that will soon become part of our ensemble, will lead us into the first advanced generation of wearables.

Determining health at a molecular level is now where we’re heading towards. Drug delivery will be in transdermal patches that will be time driven. Even, sweat could be the next goldmine for wearable data. It is a great source for chemical data. It is super friendly for non-invasive wearable sensors as you don’t have to poke into the body to get health information.

dudecamel-bluebandIf you didn’t get the joke, it’s because you don’t have a great narrative graphic comic sense. All your fault!

It’s a Phone! It’s a Patch! No… Wait… It’s Part of Me!

So, @ac_hu asked me last year on what I think will come after the smartphone. I spent that day imagining where smartphones will intersect and the only thing I could think of is at wearables, nerve impulse tapping, displays and computing. The sketch below is what I thought how it might look like.

Smartphone-Wearable-Intersection

The way to commoditize the wearable might still be around the screen size. With 0.5’ — 1’ wearables being fitness bands, 2’ being smart watches. Screen sizes could be 4’, 5’ and 6’ — with the 4′-4.5 inch being the regular sizes and 5 and 6 inch versions being the extended plus-size phablet versions of the wearable.These computing ‘patches’ could be live tracking health data while they provide enough power and storage to stream and play.

Today, we are at the pivot for bendable displays. Early adopters have started using smart watches. In 5 years, this will be a tech and app rich market. This will further fuel the wearable-smartphone intersection. Apple is making the start with losing the headphone jack. It’s a gamble — yes. But, to put things in perspective, Apple was also the first one to lose the disk drive and it has not hurt their position or the market.

The loss of audio jacks will thin out the phone and make it ready for the intrusion of the bends. Combine this with wireless charging, wireless sound, the becoming of smartphone as a wearable is seemingly inevitable. In any case, they are certainly part of the future. I’ll cover these in the coming weeks as and when I collect more thoughts on wearables and how I see them.

A few sus-tech news I found interesting last week

Technology

Start up (week’s stories and insights)

Did you know

Did you see

News @Arcluster

Arcluster’s construction and manufacturing segment covers more than 25+ sub-segments, covering over 100+ markets across Architecture, Engineering, Machines, Manufacturing, Construction and Packaging. We’ve recently announced the launch of our multi-client research study on Sustainable Packaging. Multi-client studies are published within 12–16 weeks from the end of the booking period. Follow us on twitter @arcluster for the latest news from the company.

You’re seeing this on Medium! That’s great but you should consider subscribing it as a newsletter and read at your comfort. Join the mailing list here. Here is the past archive

About me
I manage market research and consulting at Arcluster, an innovation design and market consulting company that does research and consulting on micro emerging markets and sustainable solutions. You can reach me on twitter at @anirmal or via email arun@anirmal.com.

Sustain Weekly Newsletter-25Jan2016

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SUSTAIN WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

A weekly sustainable tech newsletter from a standing desk. – Jan 25, 2016

Sustain Weekly — Siri, bring me coffee!

“I would rather suffer with coffee than be senseless” — Napoleon Bonaparte

Last week, I wrote about the future of cars and how it applies to Gen X, Y, Z. I even discussed the eventuality of the market for space travel and the bubbles that can form around it. Then during the week, I read this article on a balloon company that will take you to the edge of outer space by the end of 2017. Hmm, let’s see if it takes off. Literally and figuratively. This also follows the series of news arising around the theme of future transportation. Add to this — drones and self-driving cars — the industry might involve more than 33% of working population. There should easily be more than 100,000 companies related to transportation maybe even 5–6 times that number. Whether these will evolve or will be displaced by the next batch of companies will be interesting to follow. I expect some 200–300 new companies that will be highly popular for services that we haven’t used yet.

Will there be more new jobs? my master!

How the next generation of transportation will operate — evolving from ride shares, semi autonomous cars, dedicated car lanes, self-driving cars, commercial drones, hobby drones, space travel, high speed travel etc — a lot will revolve around government regulations and corporate lobbying.

card4762

Millions of jobs are involved. So, everyone has a stake in this game. Rules and regulations for future transportation aren’t in place and even when they are in, they might be dicey in the beginning to accommodate multiple interests. This is an initial challenge for tech evolution.

Combine this with AI, robotics, autonomous planes — we are looking at multiple industries that will have lesser number of jobs for humans.

The above venn is from ‘Indexed’ — a series of card based gyan by Jessica Hagy. I’m a big fan.

Consumerism and Coffee (and my take on a drone) — I could use one now!

Coffee Drone

Heavy consumerism will influence innovation in transportation. Same day deliveries with Amazon’s air services promise a new generation of air-based deliveries.

Someday, when they figure out ‘over the air’ heating, they’ll deliver coffee to you with just push notifications/ voice commands or even neuro-chemical indicators.The instant appeal and desire to consume is increasingly getting higher. People want instant everything. Instant transport; Instant entertainment, Instant food. How about instant karma? Not the band but in life.

Drones in logistics are happening. Keep calm and study the chart.

We covered this space during a research study late last year. The market for logistics and supply chain drones is a significant one, expected to grow at 20 X from 2015 to 2020 at a 80.1% CAGR.

LogisticsDronesMarketA few sus-tech news that I found interesting last week

Technology

  • Another semiconductor industry consolidation news. Microchip will acquire Atmel for $3.6 billion. Earlier, Avago bought Broadcom for $37B. It bought LSI earlier for $6.6B. Intel is buying Altera for $16.7B. NXP bought Freescale for $11.8B. It takes $100 million or more to make a cutting edge chip today. Naturally, this chip consolidation wave will continue.

Did you know

News @Arcluster

Arcluster’s automotive and transportation vertical covers more than 20+ sub-segments, covering over 100+ markets. We’re actively involved in discovering trends and technologies in this space. Some of our upcoming studies are in this space they’re expected to published later this year. Follow us on twitter @arcluster for the latest news from the company.

Thank you for subscribing to the newsletter. If you’re seeing this on web, Linkedin or Medium, Join the mailing list here. Here is the past archive

Also, I love feedback. Please email me your views and suggestions. Cheers.

About me
I manage market research and consulting at Arcluster, an innovation design and market consulting company that does research and consulting on micro emerging markets and sustainable solutions. You can reach me on twitter at @anirmal or via email arun@anirmal.com.

Sustain Weekly Newsletter-18Jan2016

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SUSTAIN WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

A weekly sustainable tech newsletter from a standing desk. – Jan 18, 2016

Sustain Weekly — Gen X, Y, Z and the Future of Cars #1

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” — Henry Ford

Last week, I wrote mostly on future tech and Gen Z. I wanted to cover the future of cars and vehicles as it applies to Gen X, Y and Z and how it will be influenced by tech, environment, nations and people. Right now, the oldest Gen Z is about 20. The youngest is 3 years old. Oldest Gen Y is 39; Youngest Gen Y is 21. Oldest Gen X is 50; Youngest Gen X is 40.

Let’s set the forecast year to 2025. I like years in multiples of 5. Plus, it gives us a decade to estimate any long term impact. I’ll lay out the disclaimer early. Forecasting to 3 years is feasible, 5 years comes with variance. 10 years is a long shot. Whether or not, these happen, I won’t be accountable for a skewed prediction. That’s the disclaimer.I believe that market research is the quantification of common sense. What I’ll be stating in the observations are driven by common sense. I probably won’t have numbers to back up a 10 year prediction at this time, because I simply have not invested the time yet to do the research and measure feedback.

What I state here is a hypothesis. In time, with facts, we’ll be able to know whether or not it aligns with the trends in 2025, 2035 and so on. Right. It’s now the beginning of 2016. We can easily observe the following trends.

Some mega trends and simple observations

dudecamel-cars

  • Macro economic trends: Oil is cheaper; Climate change is a major mover, Governments face pressure to reduce footprint, reduce traffic, reduce smoke, pollution etc.
  • Regulatory Trends: Increasing pressure to make fuel efficient cars. No self-driving car regulations yet.

If you didn’t get the above joke, it means I don’t have a graphic comic sense. Not your fault

Some more trends

SharingCars

  • Manufacturing Trends: Software is eating automotive. Over the Air (OTA) updates of performance and capabilities for vehicles has increased. Detroit wants to manufacture electric and autonomous cars. Asia — manufacturing hub.
  • International Trends: Asian countries — South Korea, Singapore and China are keen to make autonomous cars before some western markets.
  • Adoption Trends: Increasing number of people still buying cars; Car sharing is happening.

and some more (and New Yorker’ take on Autonomous cars)

NewYorker-SelfDrivingCars

  • Market Trends: Uber — the global disrupter; GM wants to do autonomous cars, electric cars and everything. Their bolt electric car can go 200 miles on a charge. A $20k-$30k car. Tesla makes great looking electric cars. Alphabet (Google parent) is making autonomous cars. Even, Apple wants to make cars.
  • Supplier Trends: Silicon companies have amped up efforts in stronger and smaller chips. Towards better vehicle to vehicle infrastructure and connected car ecosystem. That’s how attractive this market is.

Cars and Gen X, Y, Z

The biggest money spinners during the Gold rush was not the gold itself. It was shovels. Similarly, for cars, homes, etc — the biggest enabler might be the charger itself. How that will evolve needs a separate newsletter and coverage. Over the next 10 years, traditional car makers will transition to tech enablers. I expect half or more of the industry to work on transportation-as-a-service. This half will work towards convincing customers to completely give up buying cars. They might sell their electric vehicles to aggregators. The other half might look at making expensive electric vehicles. Mostly high end. So, you’re looking at a scenario where you are either paying a lot of money to own good cars or sharing cars or driving below average gas guzzlers. The last one might bring social ire in 2025 🙂

To let people buy expensive electric vehcile, we might see bundling programs. Like, how a smartphone is attached to a carrier. The smarter option will be to lease cars and never own them. That way, you’re always updated with the tech and at the same time, you’re not driving an old car. Imagine having to wear your iPhone 3GS on your neck and walk around now and you’ll understand how obsolete you’ll look driving in an Apple Car One when Five is out. Below are the basic assumptions of how the generations might adapt to cars.

  • Gen X: The oldest Gen X will be 60. They’ll be able to adapt well, better than the previous gen was with technology. Cars is very much their alley. They’re likely to be more open to car sharing and non-personal versions of popular models. Their importance on cost as a key aspect will enable them to adopt the latest trends in cars with ease.
  • Gen Y: 10 years from now, this generation, although tech savvy, is continuously surprised by what is up and coming and what is going to erode their privacy. Slowly, cars are an accessory to their phone and gradually to their clothes. Cars become an extended enabler to their computing needs. Half of this generation is wondering on how to capitalize on these trends.
  • Gen Z: might want to avoid driving. But they like owning things to reflect on their personality. They want excessive amounts of social validation. They want peer approval of things they own. They want to showcase products. How cars will fit into it will depend on what is perceived cooler by their peers. Cost is only a small factor. Experience is everything. So, the form of transportation that provides the maximum engagement will get traction. Devices will get connected to the car’s intelligence for the car to sync with my preferences.

Display Screens (1,2,3,4,5,6) and Co-branding

 Cars-Ad-Space

The famous companies are the ones that get on your car roofs and panels. Companies will try to become the Michaelangelo to your car’s Sistine Chapel.

Cars might be cobranded for managing the cost tradeoff. The shared ones are like bundled hardware to the service that will be more attractive to the owner and passengers. Driving for others will start to become a waning industry

Cars will be personal, while at the same time, the shared ones will be passenger agnostic. Gradually, glasses and panes are monetizable. They become one of the most important digital real estates to own, lease and commercialize. Screen 1 — Drivers; Screen 2 — Feeds, performance, levels, indicators. Screen 3 — Ads and pushed content; Screen 4,5 : Content pushed to passengers. 6 — Low value content. Bids are low to enter this category. Passenger infotainment will be built within the car.

Cars will predict your driving patterns and derive meaning and expectations on future manoeuvres and driving characteristics. This should be supplied to Insurance companies so that good drivers pay lesser insurance than bad ones. This might happen in this period. Insurance industry will fall in value overall. I expect them to lose approximately 10% of their value in the next 10 years.

Very few people will predict the future of transportation accurately. Even the next tech bubble could be about transportation. Might be even around space travel etc. Over the next 15–20 years, bubbles of various sizes will form around transportation. Many will form. Some will deflate. Few will burst. I’ll cover more as subsequent parts in the newsletter and medium articles on the future of cars and how the generations and companies will adapt to the trends. More in part #2 at a later date.

Start up (week’s stories and insights)

Did you know

News @Arcluster

Arcluster’s food and beverages segment covers more than 50+ sub-segments, covering over 200+ markets. Our focus on agriculture is on agribusiness, dairy products, livestock, organic farming, crop development, animal and livestock feed, among others. We are increasingly covering the aspect of technology on Agriculture, uncovering feedback while qualifying and quantifying disrupting trends. Follow us on twitter — @arcluster for the latest news from the company.

Thank you for subscribing to the newsletter. If you’re seeing this on web, Linkedin or Medium, Join the mailing list here. Here is the past archive

Also, I love feedback. Please email me your views and suggestions. Cheers.

About me

I manage market research and consulting at Arcluster. an innovation design and market consulting company that does research and consulting on micro emerging markets and sustainable solutions. You can reach me on twitter at @anirmal or via email arun@anirmal.com

Sustain Weekly Newsletter-11Jan2016

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SUSTAIN WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

A weekly sustainable tech newsletter from a standing desk. – Jan 11, 2016

The best time to live is in the future

Last week, I attended a few games at the Aircel Chennai Open, which Stan Wawrinka won the Singles Open for the third time in a row. He’s off to the new year with a great start. During the week, I had some time on my hands to reflect on quite a few things during the games, especially on what the future will be like. Mostly around tech, lifestyle and environment. Not that I’m a futurist or anything, but I’ve been very intrigued by the interests and behavior of Gen Z and how it economies and economics that are arising around them.

Some thoughts on Gen Z

My primary thought centered on ownership. Will Gen Z feel this and how it affects everything around us. Before that, here is how I see primary differentiations between X, Y and Z

  • Gen X (born 1966 – 76): skeptical on products and always evaluated them personally.
  • Gen Y (1977 – 1994) or Millennials – tech-savvy, immune to traditional sales pitch, Internet broke their consciousness around fashion, style, and shopping. Binge watching TV shows.
  • Gen Z (1995 – 2012) – we don’t know much of this generation yet. But we know a lot about their environment. It’s highly connected; highly diverse; highly media centric.

Gen Z is highly exposed to the world. Serious automation is ahead. Dawn of the robotics future is near. How they interact with the ecosystem will be significantly different. How they feel about goods and stuff will be unprecedented. Their perceptions of books, music, clothes, shopping, cars, work will be very different. Their touchpoints with commercialization and commerce are already new. Their choices are different and clear. Their love for things are ephemeral.

In parallel, the world is evolving around tech. Fundamental problems first world to third world is being solved through tech. Gen Z is already very comfortable with it. This means, more of Gen Z will participate to solve world issues. So, how will tech, automation and everything around it be evolve to build sustainable generations after this? How I expect this Gen see things, goods and the future is something I plan to discover and analyze in 2016. During the next few weeks, I’m planning to pick emerging tech and try dissecting it on how it is affected and effected by Gen Z. For the next week, I’m covering cars and how it applies to Gen X, Y and Z. If you’d like to discuss/debate these, email me your views (arun@anirmal.com) and we’ll continue the conversation there

A few sus-tech news I found interesting last week

  • A Canadian startup, Hydrostor, is building a set of pipes running about two miles into Lake Ontario. These pipes pump air into underwater balloons. This reduces the cost of compressed air energy storage by using simple, off-the-shelf technologies.
  • Germany’s first 5 km of 100 km bicycle autobahn. Two things: Calling it an autobahn is a PR effort. Everything is not what everyone says everything is. But it’s the first steps towards lesser congestion and getting more people an additional way for transportation.

Tech

Did you know

News @Arcluster
Arcluster is building a cloud based analytics solution, across the marketing value chain, which can be deployed for critical vertical driven functions to provide deeper insights into business processes and decision making. To learn more, check out our services section of our portfolio. Follow us on twitter –@arcluster for the latest news from the company.

You can get this as a newsletter directly to your inbox every Monday. Join the mailing list here. Here is the past archive

Also, I love feedback. Please email me your views and suggestions at arun@anirmal.com. Love you all!

Sustain Weekly Newsletter-4Jan2016

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SUSTAIN WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

A weekly sustainable tech newsletter from a standing desk. – Jan 4, 2016

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future’. – Yogi Berra

It is a new year and almost everyone is back at work. Resolutions are a key activity for a lot of people. But they are broken often. I think that’s because some of them are too mountainous to achieve. It’s like hiking Mt. Everest without any base camps. Make camps for every 100 days or even every 3 months and re-evaluate the goals and progress. Anticipate hurdles and prep for them.

Last week, I wrote on some predictions for mostly people trends in 2016. For this week, I’m finishing that list with some tech and business predictions for this year.

Some Predictions for businesses, platforms, technologies for 2016.

  • Sustainable product design and development is becoming pervasive. Materials and sustainability is going into the design. This is great. People are making better products that are not necessarily tech or intelligent but are socially and environmentally conscious.
  • Some technologies are exciting: Magic Leap for 3D Imagery, IoT – Internet of Things (everything talks to everything), 3D Printing and Analytics – of all kinds. Big Data is in an existential crisis. CIOs are wondering if they have enough data to make an inference and/or if it will create value.
  • Some technologies are called exciting because of some great PR: Apple Pay and Google Loon are in this category.
  • Some startups that over-hired will do layoffs in plenty. The focus will shift from growth to profitability. That’s because the VC is not seeing the light at the end of the customer retention tunnel. 100s of startups in this category.
  • Some big corporations are considering small tact teams for pivots. Some of them are outright struggling to generate value – for themselves, for their customer or shareholders.  Merge, split, sell or decline. Yahoo, Blackberry, Sony, Sprint are is in this category.
  • Some overvalued social and consumer IT companies will shed value and will be forced by the market to sell, evaluate options. Investors are looking to exit. Good companies but struggling due to being public. Twitter, Box are in this category.
  • Some so called change agents want more users/viewers/readers. They want more user time. And are driven by ads and revenues. The world is spending a ridiculous amount of time on them. Facebook and Arnab Goswami are in this category.

A few sus-tech news I found interesting last week

Turners

Did you see

News @Arcluster
Arcluster offers six different market trackers that provide a more seamless and continuous coverage of trends, market size, pricing, shipments, bids, vendor shares for the markets we cover. These trackers, available as excel spreadsheet deliverables, are updated on a biweekly/ monthly/ quarterly basis. Follow us on twitter – @arcluster for the latest news from the company.

Thank you for subscribing to the newsletter. If you’re not seeing this on email, Join the mailing list here. Here is the past archive

Also, I love feedback. Please email me your views and suggestions. Love you all!